2018 rubber market outlook.
[rubber technology network - industry information]
The rubber price is low, from the point of new species and double area, in the next two years day glue
supply ability can keep the stable growth, the steady weakening demand, heavy card sales
data in an apparent growth occurs in November, is expected to appear explosive growth in the
past, the future sale and form a complete set of child support weakening demand, mainly
focus on the future demand replacement of fetal growth; At present, the inventory is at an
all-time high, and we believe that in the next year, the fundamental weakness of rubber will
still be difficult to change. In the future, the price of rubber will fluctuate in a wide
range, and the high probability will run in the range of 12,000 to 17,000.
Quarter, major
producer into production and stop cutting period, reduced production and demand in the first
quarter, 1805 contracts or strong shock, if rebounded to 16000-16000 but empty single
position gradually, in the second quarter of the domestic rubber tree cutting, supply
pressure began to emerge, the demand for fair, 1805 empty single contract can gradually
check surplus in 13500-13000, if the price reached earlier than expected, but check ahead of
time.
2018 rubber market outlook.
Supply pressure in the second half of the top countries
gradually released, we think Shanghai glue in the context of supply loose will further dip,
planting link the excess supply of production need low prices to adjust, glue has dropped to
below 35 baht/kg just enough to reduce the rubber farmers enthusiasm tapping, inhibition of
smaller supply, stimulate demand to increase the balance of supply and demand to return to
at the same time; Therefore, we believe that with the advent of the season of the three and
four seasons, the center of gravity will continue to move down, the low probability of the
year will occur in the second half of the year, and the Shanghai jiao will fall below 12000.
If the third quarter falls to the expected low, the fourth quarter of the high probability
rebound repair or low volatility.
At the same time, we need to pay attention to the
introduction and implementation of policies such as storage, limit sale and production
reduction, and the weather conditions in the production area.
On the whole, we think that
the loose supply of supply is bound to require the price decline to adjust, and the Shanghai
gum in 2018 will remain in shock.
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